COP 28: What CLARA’s Watching for in Dubai

Welcome to the CLARA blog! This space will be used by members to share their views on the issues CLARA follows. We are hopeful that this will be a way for people to hear from more of our members. As a network with over 40 organizations and many individual members, we have a lot of important voices in the network we want to better feature. In addition to more regular updates around key moments such as a COP, we’ll also be providing updates on an ongoing basis in this space. Be sure to subscribe below so you don’t miss an update!

You can expect quite a few updates over the next couple of weeks. CLARA members are on their way to Dubai right now for COP 28, where there are, as always, lots of issues in play. CLARA is following three issues particularly closely: fossil fuel language around abatement, the global stocktake and carbon markets.

Abated versus Unabated

One of the highest profile issues this year is fossil fuel phaseout. There is widely expected to be a debate over what language to include addressing fossil fuels. Fossil fuel producing countries (and companies) have been working to weaken the calls for phaseout, particularly since COP 26 which saw the first explicit mention of fossil fuels in a UNFCCC decision text. Civil society has been clear that what’s needed, based on both science and climate justice, is a full, fast, and fair/equitable phase out. CLARA is particularly concerned about language distinguishing between ‘abated’ and ‘unabated fossil fuels, which is a dangerous distraction from the climate action really needed. There is no agreed upon broadly held definition of what it means to ‘abate‘ fossil fuels, so it could mean continued burning of fossil fuels in conjunction with carbon capture and storage or usage technology. It could also mean co-firing coal with biomass, as if burning trees with the coal somehow makes it better. It could even be just continued burning of fossil fuels, with so-called offsets being purchased later.

Including language around abatement is a massive and largely undefined loophole to allow continued burning of fossil fuels. It’s not the commitment to the real climate action the world needs.

There is also expected to be a commitment around expanding renewable energy. Scaling up clean, renewable energy is of course an urgent priority, but without a definition, renewables often include bioenergy and particularly the use of woody biomass in existing fossil-fuel infrastructure. Bioenergy is not good for the climate and also presents a clear risk to human rights and land rights. It’s also worth remembering that unless fossil fuel usage is actually going down, the climate crisis will continue to worsen, regardless of how much renewable energy is developed.

The Global Stocktake

The Paris Agreement is a pledge and review process. It does not generally dictate what countries must or should do, and it does not set specific targets for individual countries or even groups of countries. Instead, it relies on countries determining their own targets, via plans such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Recognizing that initial pledges would not be enough, the global stocktake was included in the Paris Agreement as a means of increasing ambition over time. Set to happen every five years, with COP 28 as the first, the GST serves as a review to evaluate collective progress to the Paris Agreement goals and is a key opportunity to increase ambition. Ambition needs to be increased rapidly in line with the temperature limit goals agreed at Paris. Additionally, a strong GST sets a precedent for strong future GSTs. A good outcome in the Stocktake would include a strong demand that countries equitably increase ambition in their future NDCs. CLARA has developed tools for social movements and frontline NGOs looking to engage in the NDC process (in English, French and Spanish).

Carbon Markets

One of the areas of negotiations that CLARA will be following most closely is Article 6 – which includes the markets in Article 6.2 and 6.4. The rules for the mechanisms on trading offsets between countries (article 6.2) and the Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM) in article 6.4, would be open to non-state entities and local governments as well).

CLARA is following the 6.4 discussion on the inclusion of ‘removals’ in the proposed carbon market system. After having recommendations on removals sent back to the 6.4 Supervisory Body last year, at COP 27, the Supervisory Body spent considerable time this year discussing the issue of removals. However, the recommendations being brought forward at COP28 are still deeply flawed, with a dangerously broad definition of removals qualifying for crediting purposes. And far too many crucial aspects are still undecided or rely on the yet to be developed broader policies under the SDM, which should be fully developed as a completed package. The lack of permanence in land-based removals and the dangerous technologies being pushed under the guise of removals are deeply concerning.

On a much more positive note – the Article 6.8 non-market mechanism is ready to launch at COP28. There will be a workshop expected on non-market approaches in article 6.8 on 4 December. The 6.8 mechanism is a much better opportunity for the needed international cooperation than the market mechanisms involving offsets.

There is a busy two weeks of work ahead, and we hope you will continue to follow along with CLARA. In a year with worsening climate impacts, the pressure is on for COP 28 to deliver. But it needs to deliver on real action and not a lot of greenwashing.